Democrats Lead Midterm Polls by 9 Points, Senate in Play
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs, and the results will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress through the final two years of Trump’s second term.
An average compiled by a polling aggregator from surveys taken through Oct. 30 puts Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 43.1% on the generic congressional ballot, a gap of 8.9 percentage points. A national broadcaster’s poll, conducted Oct. 28-30, found Democrats leading 52% to 45%. An Emerson College poll, conducted Oct. 24-26, showed a 10-point margin.
The generic ballot gauges nationwide preference for congressional candidates, not support district by district, so a national lead does not automatically yield a matching number of House seats.
HOUSE: DEMOCRATS HOLD THE NATIONAL EDGE
Republicans currently run the House, where a majority requires 218 seats.
The latest ratings from a nonpartisan political handicapper, updated Friday, rate 222 districts as leaning toward Democrats and 195 toward Republicans, with 18 left as toss-ups. Republicans hold 14 of those toss-up seats; Democrats hold four.
On Oct. 30, the handicapper moved another 12 House races in Democrats’ direction, among them Republican-held districts in Colorado and Pennsylvania.
Key races to watch include:
California’s 22nd District: Republican Rep. David Valadao against Democrat Randy Villegas.
New York’s 17th District: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler against Democrat Cait Conley.
Texas’ 15th District: Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz against Democrat Bobby Pulido.
Republicans are also targeting Democratic-held seats in Florida, North Carolina and Texas, where redistricting has reshaped the map.
District-level polling remains patchy, however, and national numbers offer only a rough read of the conditions in individual contests.
SENATE: DEMOCRATS CLIMB IN KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
The fight for the upper chamber is far less straightforward.
Republicans control 53 seats. Democrats hold 47, including two independents who caucus with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority. A 50-50 split would leave Republicans in charge, since Vice President JD Vance can break ties.
The newest polls from a national newspaper and Siena University, conducted Oct. 23-Nov. 1, show Democrats ahead in six of seven pivotal Senate battlegrounds and effectively level with Republicans in the seventh.
Five of those Democratic leads are in Republican-held states. They include Texas and Kansas, which last elected Democratic senators in 1988 and 1932, respectively.
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