Deeper Dive Cuts Through National Pundits’ Simplistic Analyses on Nevada as an Early Presidential State
Contrary to simplistic prognostications on what it might take to win the Nevada Democratic primary contest in 2028, a deeper look by Politico explains the real dynamics that will determine whether a candidate has what it takes to win our critical battleground. As a diverse, union-strong battleground, Nevada will be Democrats’ first true test in the 2028 presidential nominating process and will test which candidates can win a general election.
Politico: Nevada Dems’ 2028 reality check
Key points:
- Nevada’s switch from a caucus to the second primary after South Carolina expands the range of Democratic voters likely to participate.
- “That’s a mistake to think that somehow there’s a ‘progressive’ angle here,” Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of the politically powerful Culinary Union, told Playbook.
- Put another way: Populism, not progressivism, is the winning message in Nevada in 2028.
- Populism is what carried Sanders to victory in 2020 and President Donald Trump in 2024. And while Sanders championed progressive positions on social issues including immigration and racial justice, he didn’t lean “woke.”
- What advice does Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto have for prospective candidates? “Don’t get sucked into the culture war fights,” she told Playbook.
- “Nevadans are smart about that. They’re pretty pragmatic,” she said. “It’s about pocketbook issues, kitchen table issues. It is truly the economy.”
- Progressives, meanwhile, have struggled to gain a toehold in the state despite victories elsewhere, my old colleagues at the Nevada Independent reported.
- The other lesson from Sanders’ 2020 campaign is infrastructure. Sanders, who built relationships with Nevadans in 2016, started staffing up in the state in March 2019. By caucus day, he ran circles around his competition with more than 250 staffers on the ground, nearly twice the size of the next largest campaign. They also focused on Latino turnout.
- And the 2028 hopefuls are flocking to Nevada to lay the groundwork for campaigns, building relationships with top Democrats, fundraising for the state party and assembling teams with experience in-state.
- And relationships are important. Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Cory Booker have preexisting ones from past presidential runs. Gavin Newsom and Ro Khanna have ties from living next door.
- Newsom, Booker, JB Pritzker and Mark Kelly developed rapport with Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno, including calling and texting her directly, according to a person familiar with the interactions. She’s also spent time with Wes Moore.
- Buttigieg raked in the most money of any prospective 2028er during the state party’s “Local Brews + National Views” event earlier this month, while Newsom hauled in more for the state party by sending an email to his list, the person familiar said. Through his list, Newsom has raised $207,000 to date for the state party between its state and federal accounts, per a person familiar with his fundraising operation.
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